I think I said in my last post about it, that this game isn’t so much about what team wins as much as how they win, and why they win. I’ve also been reading some of the conversation, and trying not to spread around so many spoilers. It’s better if people speculate on what really happens but…
Since we’ve got some more specifics now about how things are progressing, I’m gonna give some more specific questions. I actually want to know who people think is really in control of the game, and why.
- The real game is when Nao’s the dealer. Who decides where Kosaka bets during these games?
- What could Akiyama have figured out in two games that he wouldn’t have figured out during the rehearsal and told Nao about?
- What part of Fukunaga’s talk with Kosaka do we have little to no outside evidence of actually being true?
- What goal did Akiyama give Nao at the start of the Stationary Roulette game (before the rules were even explained)? How can this be interpreted?
One more final thing to add (in ROT 13, read at the risk of killing the suspense)
ng guvf cbvag, rirelbar vf haqrerfgvzngvat anb, rira gubfr jub guvax gurl’er tvivat ure n ybg bs perqvg. vs lbh nera’g guvaxvat nobhg ubj fur pbhyq npghnyyl or va pbzcyrgr pbageby bs guvf tnzr, lbh nera’g ba gur evtug genpx.
The Liar Game 
Argh!! I want to read the rot-13, but I don’t know if I should…
…Okay, I did. Not nearly as bad as you thought 😛
1. Nao does, of course. Kosaka bets when Nao blinks. The question is if Nao realizes that she controls where Kosaka bets… I thought that maybe Fukunaga was with Akiyama and Nao really, since if Nao controlled Kosaka with blinks, it would be really easy to win. But Fukunaga’s thoughts in chapter 81 (I think… the latest one) make it clear that he really wants Nao to lose. I mean, he said something like “This game will decide it! Nao’s moronic mind to the rescue!” It’s that last sentence… If he just said “This game will decide it!” or something like “Everything’s working out perfectly!” then that doesn’t say anything. But saying Nao’s mind is moronic… Obviously, we can’t take speech at face value in Liar Game. But people’s thoughts… there’s no reason to lie about that. (Of course, there’s also the fact that it is translated, and possibly embellished…)
2. How Kosaka is figuring out where to bet. I mean, it was painfully obvious that something was going on during the “Is it 1? Is it 2? Is it 3? Is it 4?” thing. Also figuring out Nao’s tell would’ve been pretty good, too xD
3. Hmm… first of all, we really don’t know if Fukunaga is with Kosaka or Nao/Akiyama. As I said earlier, his thoughts heavily imply that he’s truly with Kosaka, but one can never be sure… So the whole blinking thing could’ve been made up. The other thing is the whole “Just take all the prize money yourself!” thing. I mean, really… how can she do that? >_> Although I don’t really know how much of an impact that could have on the game….’
4. Arrrbl… Making me go reread stuff… (Hey, random sidenote: is it just me, or does Akiyama seem really… happy and… light in chapter 77? Reminds me of Roots of A :3) Anyway, Akiyama told Nao to protect their lead. She definitely did a good job at that xDD It’s basically a “Don’t mess up and do risky things that’s just going to ruin it. I worked hard in Round 2 and you’re the reason we didn’t win Round 1, so don’t cause our downfall here!!” …Okay, so it wasn’t nearly as harsh and all that, but yeah xD
(btw, did you notice when reading? In chapter 81 (maybe page 10 or 3? I don’t really remember…) the “4” pocket is drawn as dark, when it’s supposed to be light. I was so disappointed =\ STUPID CHANGE BLINDNESS!)
1. The translation is fairly accurate (“It came, Nao’s explosion of idiocy” is the literal translation), but I think it’s the facial expression that gives it away. Fukunaga, who’s so far been all ‘kukuku’ and ‘all according to plan’ is incredibly tense and nervous. Nao’s expression too, is pretty priceless. At this point the game rests on the question of not just what side Fukunaga is really on, but whether Nao is aware of what she’s doing, and how long she’s been aware of it.
2. I think the other thing (maybe the big thing, and this is speculation because I really don’t know what went on during the time out) is that Nao is very obviously not following the hints he gave her (don’t take risks, bet everything on one number). The other thing is what he says at the end of the time out the previous chapter: “Just focus on not making any dumb mistakes.”
3. Eh. The weird thing about the contract is that if it holds true, and Fukunaga has a sense of altruism (or at least camaraderie) with Nao and Akiyama, 3 million is the exact amount needed to pay off the investment for all three of them. Totally unlikely, but something kind of worth thinking about. The other thing…I think it’s surprised me that absolutely no one has questioned the blinking thing. Even the people who think Fukunaga’s on Nao and Akiyama’s side assume it to be true (Not that it can’t be true…but seriously, the fact that people are questioning the validity of the contract, but not the fact that’s the basis for the partnership is kind of weird).
4. Yeah. I think it’s the whole round (except for this part, which seriously has him on edge), but Akiyama is a lot lighter in 77 than he is in pretty much any other time we’ve seen him. The literal instruction he gave her though in that chapter was, “Protect the lead.” Nothing more than that until he found out what the game was. I think he meant that to be, “don’t take any risks and don’t try to be fancy,” while Nao is definitely not taking it that way. If you look at both outcomes of the bet (Nao wins, or Kosaka wins) and work out the best case scenario for the loser the results are…interesting…to say the least.
My general broken record statement is: Everyone is underestimating Nao. Even the people who say they’re giving her a lot of credit.
(I didn’t actually see it…but now that you mention it, yeah it is. It’s only dark that one time though.)
1. Hmm… but Nao has a ton of shocked expressions (while Akiyama’s only one is really at the end of Round 3). Depending on what’s going on, that expression could be “*gasp* she got it right again!” or “*gasp* she actually fell for it and bet on the wrong one!” which is why I haven’t made an speculations or anything based on it. And yeah, that is what the game is resting on xD
2. Well, if the whole blinking thing is a ruse and Nao has Kosaka under her thumb, it really isn’t a risk 😛 But I get the feeling that that isn’t totally the case, considering how shocked (well, the fact that he was shocked) at the point where Nao was like “I don’t think there will be a 1/64th miracle… Now is the perfect time for a turnaround.”
3. The blinking thing must be true. …And it is, as we’ve seen from the part with Kosaka’s point of view. Fukunaga wouldn’t go make a contract based on something that exists. It’s just a question of whether Nao actually has that tell and Fukunaga betrayed them, or it’s something that Fukunaga, and Nao/Akiyama made up to win this game.
4. …I don’t get what you were saying about the interesting outcome at the end >_>
Random theory that I don’t actually believe so you can stop saying that we’re not giving Nao enough credit: Nao told Fukunaga after Round 1 that Akiyama would probably win Round 2, and then they could set it up so that they would win a lot of money in Round 3. She told Fukunaga about her tell (or just made it up) and told Fukunaga to make that deal with Kosaka, including all the clauses, making sure that Fukunaga would get 300 million from Kosaka as a safeguard so that if for some reason they lost, they would be able to clear their debt (…even if Nao and Akiyama would still ower 400 mil each) and has known exactly what’s going on and fixed out the betting so that the math would work out and she could come from behind and win now.
…She then built a time machine and sent detailed instructions for all the previous rounds to Akiyama in the past, and he wasn’t smart or anything but just knew what to do from the instructions. She also broke out of the 4th wall and told Fukunaga to think stupid things about her to fool the readers.
…And then she beat up chuck norris and divided by 0 over 900 times.
😀
Super-random question: I think they use “turnaround” or something a few times at this point… Is the word they use “Gyakuten”?
1. It’s not her usual shocked expression. Actually…she’s not behaving the way she normally does when she’s in a losing situation (that is crying and thinking ‘I’ve lost’). Actually, we haven’t really been in her head this whole game, except for when she was asking Kosaka to stop fighting her.
2. Is it really shock on Akiyama’s part. It just looks like he’s perking up, and senses that Nao’s about to do something big. He knows faulty statistics when he hears them.
3. The blinking exists, obviously. But everyone is taking it at face value just because Kosaka won a couple games based on it…
4. It has to do with the chances of either one making a comeback in their last two turns as dealer if they happened to lose this big bet.
lol at your Random Theory. Nao hasn’t actually successfully divided by zero yet. Maybe in Round 4. ^^ She did beat up Chuck Norris though, although that was only because she was possessed by the spirit of Bruce Li.
Yep. The word used is “gyakuten.”
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!! GYAKUTEN!!!!!!
GYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTENGYAKUTEN!!!!
WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!
…
*ahem*
I like Phoenix Wright.
Anywayz…
1. Hmm… I dunno. It looks like a gasp to me. And as I already said, I don’t think we can concretely interpret what the expression means.
2. Nao seemed to be good with math. I mean, she couldn’t devise all of Akiyama’s stuff that he did with the math, but it seemed like she could calculate well and understand what the probabilities meant. Which means that the whole 1/64th thing is probably just a whole ruse xD But to me, Akiyama’s shock seemed… bad. Like he’s thinking, “Oh no. What is she doing?”
3. Kosaka won a few rounds with the blinking because Nao placed the ball in the same pocket as her blink number. (That’s what I’m calling it.) Of course, there’s the possibility that it was a giant random coincidence, but I’m just going to assume that’s not the case…. So, like before, it really comes down to whether the blinking really is Nao’s tell or if it’s something she/Akiyama/Fukunaga came up with to fool Kosaka, or, if it really is her tell, whether or not she’s figured it out.
4. Hmm… Nao has 366, and Kosaka has 448. If Nao wins, she will have 726 and Kosaka will have 88. If Kosaka wins, Nao will have 150 and Kosaka will have 664. Just from that, it’s much easier for Nao to come back than Kosaka. Of course, I have no idea if the math will actually allow that xD
If Nao wins… Hm… I don’t know what Kosaka would do next turn. She had been doing small bets before, but now she might go big. The other problem is Nao has no strategy for betting, meaning there’s a 50/50 chance of her winning. There’s just so many cases… T_T I’m ignoring it! 😀
If Kosaka wins, then she’ll probably do a 1×4 battle again to protect her lead. Since it’s such a small amount and there’s a 50-50 chance each way… I’m going to ignore it 😀 The math won’t be exact, but it’ll still be pretty close. On Nao’s turn, she could bet 37 on each square. Kosaka would bet 148 on some square. Nao would have to win, and she would have 298, and while Kosaka would have 516… Oh my! That IS interesting! We’re right back at the beginning, but… reversed. From here, Nao could win one more round to get back in the lead. Hmm….
Anyway, theory: What if this entire thing is a plan set up by Nao and Fukunaga? I’m guessing that Akiyama has no idea what’s going on, judging from his reactions. At least so far, I’ve been grouping Nao and Akiyama together for EVERYTHING. So let’s give her a bit more credit… What does Akiyama have to do with it? If Fukunaga really could tell Nao’s tell at this point, shouldn’t he have noticed she was lying about the making money thing in Round 1? “Nao’s moronic mind to the rescue!” makes it clear that Fukunaga betrayed Nao and Akiyama. But “It came, Nao’s explosion of idiocy”… is completely different! What if this is the “explosion of idiocy” that makes Kosaka completely sure that Nao is stupid, has no idea what she’s talking about, and blinks when she lies? Nao can use the blink to come back only if Kosaka truly believes that Nao is stupid and helpless, and believes in the tell. And what did we get this round? Kosaka thought “Nao is such an idiot!” This WILL decide the match; even if Nao loses, Nao’s grip around Kosaka will be fully tightened, and can afterward.
That’s my theory on what has happened. My guess as to what WILL happen: Nao loses this round. Her grip around Kosaka is complete 😀 She bets all her chips on the next round, and uses her fake tell to trick Kosaka into losing, coming back. Perhaps for her last round of dealing, Kosaka makes another small bet? I don’t know, but I don’t think Nao will come back then. Remember that part in the drama where Akiyama is like, “The chest is empty” and Yokoya is like “Yeah right doubt”? That could happen. I would love to see it, too! It would work kinda like this… Nao places the ball in the slot. (I’m going to just use random numbers…) Kosaka asks “Is it 1? Is it 2?” before Nao places her bet. (Argh! I know it’s weird that that would happen, but… blargh!!) Nao blinks on 2, so Kosaka thinks it’s 2. Before Kosaka bets, Nao says, “Please, Ms. Kosaka. I really don’t want to fight you. The ball is in pocket number 1.” She would probably blink when she says that 😛 Anyway, Kosaka is like, “Psh, yeah right.” But she has some nagging feeling… so she bets part on 1 and part on 2. Obviously, Nao did it on 1, and she gets enough chips to win. The big reason I think something like this will happen was b/c in (I think) 79, when Akiyama was explaining threatening them, he was like, “If you’re really good, you could get them to big a large amount of chips on the other number. But you’re not, so we don’t need to worry about that happening.” Obviously, that exact thing needs to happen xDDD
…ARGH! I WANT TO KNOW!!!! Tell me if I’m hot or cold =\
Oh yeh, thanks for doing all this stuff xD Discussing things like this brings out so many realizations and theories… If I my theory is right, I’m going to feel like I got it all by myself even though you really spoon-fed it to me xDDDDDDD
But no one else has commented with their theories here :*(
I bet you this: Most people are too busy getting scammed by Nao to comment right now. =D
As to your theory: Heh. Almost there. Not quite…
You were on the right track and then you just kind of derailed it.
However, anything more I say will give away too much. ^^
xDDD
Well, I think that’s a good way of describing my theory. It hasn’t told me anything, but I got the info I needed about the rightness of my theory~
btw, I don’t really think that second half will happen… It’s just what I want to happen, since I’ve wanted that moment in the drama to happen in the manga ever since I’ve seen it xD Hopefully it was derailed in the second half and not the first… (But don’t tell me!)